Key facts 2026
How population projections work
The UN uses the cohort-component method: populations are divided into age-sex groups. Each year, the model applies age-specific fertility rates, mortality rates and net migration to project forward. The three variants (low, medium, high) differ mainly in their fertility assumptions: the low and high paths sit half a child per woman below and above the medium one.
The demographic transition explains why growth slows: as countries develop economically, death rates fall first, causing rapid growth. Birth rates follow later as women gain education and economic independence. Most high-income nations are now at or below replacement fertility (2.1 children per woman).
World population milestones
| Milestone | Year reached | Years to next billion |
|---|---|---|
| 1 billion | 1804 | 123 |
| 2 billion | 1927 | 33 |
| 3 billion | 1960 | 14 |
| 4 billion | 1974 | 13 |
| 5 billion | 1987 | 12 |
| 6 billion | 1999 | 12 |
| 7 billion | 2011 | 11 |
| 8 billion | 2022 (November 15, UN) | about 15 |
| 9 billion | about 2037 (projected) | about 24 |
| 10 billion | about 2061 (projected) | 11 billion not reached |
| Peak, 10.29 billion | 2084 (projected) | then slow decline |
Population by country (2026 estimates)
Mid-2026 population from the UN medium variant. Growth is the change to mid-2027.
| # | Country | Population | % of world | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | India | 1,476,625,571 | 17.79% | +0.85% |
| 2 | China | 1,412,914,090 | 17.02% | −0.23% |
| 3 | United States | 349,035,484 | 4.20% | +0.49% |
| 4 | Indonesia | 287,886,782 | 3.47% | +0.73% |
| 5 | Pakistan | 259,299,792 | 3.12% | +1.63% |
| 6 | Nigeria | 242,431,835 | 2.92% | +2.04% |
| 7 | Brazil | 213,562,666 | 2.57% | +0.33% |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 177,818,039 | 2.14% | +1.19% |
| 9 | Russia | 143,394,457 | 1.73% | −0.24% |
| 10 | Ethiopia | 138,902,185 | 1.67% | +2.49% |
| 11 | Mexico | 132,997,658 | 1.60% | +0.77% |
| 12 | Japan | 122,427,730 | 1.47% | −0.57% |
| 13 | Egypt | 120,101,178 | 1.45% | +1.45% |
| 14 | Philippines | 117,724,473 | 1.42% | +0.79% |
| 15 | DR Congo | 116,452,162 | 1.40% | +3.16% |
| 16 | Iran | 93,168,492 | 1.12% | +0.72% |
| 17 | Turkey | 87,926,083 | 1.06% | +0.31% |
| 18 | Germany | 83,644,257 | 1.01% | −0.24% |
| 19 | United Kingdom | 69,931,528 | 0.84% | +0.52% |
| 20 | France | 66,746,398 | 0.80% | +0.14% |
Methodology and sources
The live counter starts from the UN mid-year figures, 8,231,613,067 on July 1, 2025, 8,300,678,396 on July 1, 2026 and 8,369,094,344 on July 1, 2027, and moves in a straight line between them. Right now that is 2.17 people per second. Births and deaths today use the UN totals for calendar 2026: 132,503,470 births and 63,637,310 deaths.
Population data is compiled by the UN from national censuses, civil registration systems and demographic surveys for 237 countries and areas. All figures are model-derived estimates, so treat the last digits as a clock, not a headcount. Other agencies differ slightly: the US Census Bureau's International Database, for example, has its own estimates.
| Source | Used for |
|---|---|
| UN World Population Prospects 2024 (UN DESA) | Population, births, deaths and projections to 2100 (medium, low, high) |
| Our World in Data, UN projection variants | Machine-readable copy of the WPP 2024 series we load |
| Our World in Data, population since 1800 | World population before 1950 (HYDE and Gapminder) |
| US Census Bureau International Database | Independent estimates for comparison |
This counter is intended for educational and informational use only.